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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.